Star India Commodity Blog: 2017

	R1	S1
GOLD	28820	27980
SILVER	38840	37100
CRUDE	3250	2960
COPPER	414	390
LEAD	151	140
NICKEL	680	615
ALUMINIUM	125	119
ZINC	186	173

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Aluminium, the best performer of 2017 on a year to date basis; however seems to have run out of luck in June as it is the only base metal on the losing side. Aluminium prices on the LME and MCX have plunged by 2.5 and 1.8 percent respectively on a month-to-date basis as against a surge of 11 and 4 percent on a year-to-date basis. Average Aluminium prices have slipped to $1893.5/t so far in June’17, lowest since Feb’17, all thanks to falling coal and crude oil prices since the light metal industry is highly energy intensive. Currently, Crude oil prices are languishing near nine-month lows hit by a double whammy of recovery in OPEC output in May’17 coupled with rising US production. While on the other hand, coking coal prices are hovering near one year lows in China despite rising imports from China.

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NICKEL TIPS

Nickel prices were trading lower by 0.57 per cent to Rs 645.80 per kg in futures trade today amid profit-booking by speculators and easing demand at the domestic spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in July fell by Rs 3.70, or 0.57 per cent, to Rs 645.80 per kg in a business turnover of 824 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in August was trading lower by Rs 3.60, or 0.55 per cent, to Rs 650.20 per kg in 272 lots. Market men said profit-booking by participants at prevailing levels amid fall in demand from makers in the spot market, mainly influenced nickel prices at futures trade.

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ZINC

Zinc prices declined by 0.53 per cent to 178.45 per kg in futures market today as speculators cut down positions, taking negative cues from spot market on tepid demand from consuming industries. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in July slipped by 95 paisa, or 0.53 per cent, to Rs 178.45 per kg in a business turnover of 2,164 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in August was trading lower by a similar margin at Rs 178.65 per kg in 292 lots. Market analysts attributed the weakness in zinc futures to offloading of positions by participants amid sluggish demand from consuming industries in the physical market.

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CRUDE OIL TRENDS

Copper futures fell 0.64 per cent to Rs 412 per kg today as speculators booked profits at prevailing high levels amid low demand at spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in far-month November declined by Rs 2.65, or 0.64 per cent to Rs 412 per kg in a business turnover of 44 lots. The metal for delivery in August month shed Rs 2.30 or 0.56 per cent to Rs 405.70 per kg in a business volume of 832 lots. Analysts attributed the fall to offloading of positions by speculators at prevailing higher levels coupled with subdued spot demand.

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CRUDE OIL TRENDS

Oil prices jumped over one percent in American trade as the dollar index edged down to near the lowest since June 23, 2016, following earlier data from the US, and ahead of Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari's speech in Minnesota. On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration released its report on US crude stocks, showing a deficit of 7.2 million barrels in the week ending July 21, adding to the 4.7M drop in the previous week, while analysts expected only a 3.3M drawdown, with total stocks now reaching 483.4 million barrels, remaining within the uppermost range on average in this time of year. Otherwise, gasoline stocks fell one million barrels, while distillate inventories declined 1.9 million barrels, both remaining within the uppermost range on average in this time of year

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SILVER TRENDS

Silver futures rose almost one percent to near one-month high, on track for the third weekly profit in a row as the dollar index hit a fresh 13-month low following earlier data from the US, the world's largest economy. Otherwise from the US, earlier data showed durable goods orders rose above expectations in June, as core orders, excluding transportation slowed down unexpectedly. Similarly the US goods trade deficit shrank more than expected, as wholesale inventories rose sharply in May past forecasts, and finally, unemployment claims rose more than expected last week.

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COMMODITY TRENDS

Earlier US data showed GDP growth at 2.6% in the second quarter, up from 1.4% in the first quarter, and besting expectations of 2.5%, while the preliminary reading for GDP prices slowed down to 1.0% from 1.9%, missing expectations of 1.3, and finally, the Employment Cost Index slowed down as well more than forecast. University of Michigan released its second and final reading for the consumer sentiment survey in July, showing a rise to 93.4 from the preliminary reading of 93.1, besting expectations of 93.2, while below June's reading of 97.1. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve voted to maintain overnight interest rates at between 1% and 1.25% at the Federal Open Market Committee's policy meeting in Washington, while asserting their intention to start normalizing their massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year.